Within NASA UAP
Know the Ordinary Before Calling It Anomalous
NASA's baseline-data idea means databases need comparison records of balloons, drones, satellites and glint before calling something anomalous.
On this page
- Why baseline observations matter
- Known objects that mimic UAP reports
- How comparison libraries could improve catalogues
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Introduction
NASA’s UAP study introduced a simple but demanding idea: before a database can identify something unusual, it needs a large library of what normal objects look like under similar conditions. In practice, that means collecting reference observations of balloons, drones, aircraft, satellites, birds, atmospheric effects and sensor artefacts, then comparing future reports against those baselines. NASA’s independent study argued that many UAP cases remain unresolved not because they are necessarily extraordinary, but because the available observations are too limited, poorly calibrated or insufficiently contextualised. A comparison library turns “unidentified” from a mystery label into a testable category. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
For UFO report databases and catalogues, this is a major shift. Traditional archives often focus on witness descriptions and case counts. A scientific catalogue also needs negative controls: records showing how ordinary objects appear when viewed through the same cameras, sensors and environmental conditions that generate UAP reports. Without those controls, analysts risk treating unfamiliar appearances as anomalies when they may be routine misidentifications. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
Why Baseline Observations Matter
A baseline library is the observational equivalent of a medical reference range. Doctors cannot recognise an abnormal blood result without knowing what normal measurements look like. UAP investigators face the same problem. They need large datasets showing how common objects behave across different altitudes, weather conditions, lighting environments and sensor systems.
NASA’s report repeatedly emphasised that the skies are already crowded with conventional objects. Balloons, drones and aircraft occupy airspace continuously, creating many opportunities for misidentification. The study specifically noted that observers may report ordinary objects as anomalies and highlighted the need for improved classification systems and data collection methods. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
The challenge becomes even greater when observations come from specialised military or aviation sensors. Infrared cameras, radar systems and electro-optical tracking devices do not present reality in a straightforward photographic form. They produce processed data that can distort shape, speed and motion. A bright object viewed through one sensor may appear completely different through another. Baseline datasets help analysts learn what those distortions normally look like before attributing unusual behaviour to the object itself. [AARO]
This is why NASA’s scientific approach places heavy emphasis on calibration and contextual metadata. A report gains value when investigators know exactly which sensor recorded it, how that sensor was configured, and what known objects were present in the surrounding environment. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
Known Objects That Commonly Mimic UAP Reports
The modern UAP discussion often focuses on unresolved incidents, but government reviews consistently find that many solved cases involve familiar objects observed under unusual conditions.
According to AARO, the Pentagon office responsible for investigating UAP reports, resolved cases frequently turn out to be balloons, birds, drones, satellites and conventional aircraft. AARO’s historical review also lists rockets, rocket exhaust plumes, stars, planets, optical effects, radar clutter and infrared artefacts among common sources of misidentification. [Wikisource]en.wikisource.orgResponses to Statement of TaskWikisourceNASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Independent…14 Oct 2023 — NASA's fleet of earth-observing satellites should play a po… [U.S. Department of War]war.govdod examining unidentified anomalous phenomenaDepartment of WarDOD Examining Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena14 Nov 2024 — "AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of cases in its hol… [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 — AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of ca…
Several categories are especially important for baseline libraries:
- Balloons: Often drift slowly but can appear stationary or highly manoeuvrable depending on observer motion and perspective. Weather balloons, hobby balloons and illuminated sky lanterns have repeatedly appeared in UAP investigations. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 — AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of ca…
- Drones: Consumer and commercial drones can produce unfamiliar flight patterns, hovering behaviour and lighting configurations that differ from conventional aircraft. Their growing presence makes them increasingly relevant comparison targets. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
- Satellites and orbital reflections: Satellite constellations such as Starlink have generated numerous UAP reports because of unusual illumination effects. Reflections from satellite surfaces can create bright moving lights, apparent formations and sudden changes in visibility. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXivEnhancing Space Situational Awareness to Mitigate Risk: A Single-Case Study in the Misidentification of a Recently-Launched Starlink…
- Birds and insects: At certain ranges and camera settings, biological targets can appear as featureless luminous objects. Compression artefacts and infrared glare may remove visible details that would otherwise identify them. [Metabunk]metabunk.orgaaro 2024 annual report on uap.13762MetabunkAARO 2024 Annual Report on UAP14 Nov 2024 — In many other cases, birds are commonly misidentified as UAP due to sensor artifacts…
- Astronomical objects: Bright planets, stars and atmospheric phenomena frequently appear in sighting databases, especially when viewed near the horizon or through turbulent air. [Wikisource]en.wikisource.orgPage:AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 2024WikisourcePage:AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 2024.pdf/124 May 2024 — Beyond initially being unidentified or misidentified, drone…
- Sensor artefacts: Some apparent anomalies originate primarily from the observing instrument rather than the target. Infrared blooming, parallax effects, image compression, glare and ambiguous radar returns can create the appearance of extraordinary motion or shape. Wikisource [metabunk]metabunk.orgaaro 2024 annual report on uap.13762MetabunkAARO 2024 Annual Report on UAP14 Nov 2024 — In many other cases, birds are commonly misidentified as UAP due to sensor artifacts… A useful baseline library would not merely label these categories. It would preserve examples recorded under many different conditions so analysts could compare a new report against a known range of appearances.
The Starlink Problem Shows Why Reference Libraries Are Needed
One of the clearest examples of baseline-data value comes from satellite observations.
A 2024 case study examined reports from commercial airline pilots who observed what appeared to be an unusual aerial phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean. Multiple pilots reported the object, and photographs and video were collected. At first glance, the consistency of the observations seemed to strengthen the case for something unusual. However, researchers reconstructed the viewing geometry using satellite orbital data and aircraft tracking information. They concluded that the observations were consistent with a newly launched Starlink satellite train viewed under unusual illumination conditions. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXivEnhancing Space Situational Awareness to Mitigate Risk: A Single-Case Study in the Misidentification of a Recently-Launched Starlink…
The significance of the study is not merely that the sighting received a conventional explanation. It demonstrates how a baseline library could operate in practice. Analysts combined:
- Satellite orbital records.
- Aircraft position data.
- Lighting geometry.
- Known reflection behaviour.
The result was a reproducible explanation that could be tested against future reports. A well-designed UAP database could automatically perform similar comparisons whenever a witness reports lights moving in formation shortly after a satellite launch. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXivEnhancing Space Situational Awareness to Mitigate Risk: A Single-Case Study in the Misidentification of a Recently-Launched Starlink…
This approach turns catalogue work into a form of pattern matching rather than a collection of isolated stories.
Building a Comparison Library Around Sensors, Not Just Objects
A common misconception is that a baseline database only needs pictures of known objects. In reality, the more important reference material may be sensor-specific.
The same balloon can appear radically different when viewed through:
- A smartphone camera.
- A military infrared system.
- Airborne radar.
- Ground-based optical telescopes. [arxiv.org]arxiv.orgSource details in endnotes.
- Night-vision equipment.
For that reason, NASA’s emphasis on calibrated, multisensor observations has direct implications for catalogue design. Reference libraries should record how known targets appear across multiple instruments, not merely what the targets are. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
A modern baseline entry might include:
Dataset elementPurposeObject identityConfirms what was actually observedSensor typeShows how the object was recordedEnvironmental conditionsCaptures weather and visibility effectsObserver locationEnables geometric reconstructionTime synchronisationAllows comparison with external databasesRaw and processed dataPreserves both original and interpreted observations
This structure mirrors practices already used in astronomy, Earth observation and aerospace monitoring, where known reference objects are routinely used to validate instruments and analysis pipelines. [Wikisource]en.wikisource.orgStudy Team Report/Foreword14 Oct 2023 — Despite numerous accounts and visuals, the absence of consistent, detailed, and curated observati…
How Comparison Libraries Could Improve UFO Catalogues
Many public UFO databases currently prioritise report accumulation. Baseline libraries push databases toward evidence evaluation.
Instead of simply asking whether a report remains unidentified, future catalogues could record how thoroughly it has been tested against known references. A case might move through several stages:
- Initial report received.
- Environmental data attached.
- Aircraft and satellite traffic checked.
- Weather balloon records checked.
- Sensor artefact comparison performed.
- Similar baseline cases searched.
- Residual anomaly score assigned.
Such a system would make unresolved cases more meaningful. A report that remains unexplained after extensive comparison against baseline datasets is fundamentally different from a report that lacks enough information for evaluation.
NASA’s study and subsequent discussions around UAP data quality point toward this model. The goal is not merely to increase reporting volume but to improve the ability to separate ordinary phenomena from genuinely unexplained observations. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th…
The Practical Limits of Baseline Libraries
Baseline datasets are powerful, but they do not eliminate uncertainty.
Many reports lack precise timestamps, calibrated imagery or complete sensor records. Even a comprehensive library cannot identify an object if critical information is missing. NASA’s study repeatedly stressed that poor-quality observations remain a major obstacle to scientific analysis. [Space]space.comnasa ufo uap study team first results revealedSpaceNASA UFO report finds no evidence of 'extraterrestrial…14 Sept 2023 — "While there are numerous eyewitness accounts and visuals a…
Another challenge is that the baseline itself changes over time. New drone designs, expanding satellite constellations and evolving sensor technologies continually introduce new appearances that may not yet exist in reference collections. A useful baseline library therefore requires constant updating rather than one-time construction. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXivEnhancing Space Situational Awareness to Mitigate Risk: A Single-Case Study in the Misidentification of a Recently-Launched Starlink…
This helps explain why AARO continues to resolve many cases while still leaving some unresolved. The existence of unexplained reports does not automatically imply extraordinary causes. In many instances, investigators simply lack enough comparison data, enough sensor information or enough observational context to reach a confident conclusion. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 — AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of ca… [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 — AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of ca…
From Sighting Archives to Scientific Catalogues
The most important contribution of the baseline-data concept is that it changes the purpose of a UAP database. Instead of functioning primarily as a repository of unusual claims, it becomes a reference system for recognising ordinary phenomena.
In that model, every confirmed balloon track, drone observation, satellite glint, bird recording and sensor artefact becomes valuable data. These records are not distractions from anomaly research; they are the foundation that makes anomaly research possible. NASA’s scientific framing suggests that a credible UAP catalogue is not built by collecting only mysteries. It is built by first understanding the normal sky in enough detail that genuinely unusual cases can be distinguished from it. [NASA Science]science.nasa.govNASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th… 2meritalk.com
Amazon book picks
Further Reading
Books and field guides related to Know the Ordinary Before Calling It Anomalous. Use these as the next step if you want deeper reading beyond the article.
The Demon-Haunted World
Rating: 4.5/5 from 43 Google Books ratings
Directly supports the need to know ordinary explanations before labelling something anomalous.
UFOs
Relevant to evidence standards, official reports and the challenge of identifying true anomalies.
The Signal and the Noise
Helps explain why baselines are needed to distinguish unusual signals from ordinary noise.
The Field Guide to Understanding Human Error
Useful for thinking about misidentification, human factors and error in anomalous-event catalogues.
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Endnotes
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Source: science.nasa.gov
Link: https://science.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/uap-independent-study-team-final-report.pdfSource snippet
NASA ScienceIndependent Study Team ReportThere are numerous balloons and drones in the air at any moment. Observers may report some of th...
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Source: space.com
Title: nasa ufo uap study team first results revealed
Link: https://www.space.com/nasa-ufo-uap-study-team-first-results-revealedSource snippet
SpaceNASA UFO report finds no evidence of 'extraterrestrial...14 Sept 2023 — "While there are numerous eyewitness accounts and visuals a...
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Source: meritalk.com
Title: nasa urged to take more permanent role in uap research effort
Link: https://www.meritalk.com/articles/nasa-urged-to-take-more-permanent-role-in-uap-research-effort/Source snippet
By lending...Read more...
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Source: science.nasa.gov
Link: https://science.nasa.gov/uap/Source snippet
NASA ScienceUAP9 Jun 2022 — A study team to examine unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs) – that is, observations of events in the sky...
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Source: aaro.mil
Title: AARO Historical Record Report Vol 1 2024
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/AARO_Historical_Record_Report_Vol_1_2024.pdfSource snippet
AAROAARO_Historical_Record_Repor...6 Mar 2024 — misidentified, drones, balloons, aircraft, rockets, rocket exhaust plumes, satellites, in...
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Source: metabunk.org
Title: aaro 2024 annual report on uap.13762
Link: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/aaro-2024-annual-report-on-uap.13762/Source snippet
MetabunkAARO 2024 Annual Report on UAP14 Nov 2024 — In many other cases, birds are commonly misidentified as UAP due to sensor artifacts...
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Title: Responses to Statement of Task
Link: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/NASA_Unidentified_Anomalous_Phenomena%3A_Independent_Study_Team_Report/Responses_to_Statement_of_TaskSource snippet
WikisourceNASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Independent...14 Oct 2023 — NASA's fleet of earth-observing satellites should play a po...
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Source: war.gov
Title: dod examining unidentified anomalous phenomena
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Department of WarDOD Examining Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena14 Nov 2024 — "AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of cases in its hol...
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Source: war.gov
Title: dr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annual
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Title: Page:AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 2024
Link: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Page%3AAARO_Historical_Record_Report_Volume_1_2024.pdf/12Source snippet
WikisourcePage:AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 2024.pdf/124 May 2024 — Beyond initially being unidentified or misidentified, drone...
Published: May 2024
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Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.18566 -
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UAP Reporting TrendsUAP Reporting Trends. January 1, 1996 - January 15, 2026. Closed Cases... Reported UAP Morphology. Not all UAP repor...
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Link: https://www.nasa.gov/Source snippet
NASANational Aeronautics and Space Administration. NASA explores the unknown in air and space, innovates for the benefit of humanity, and...
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Source: nasa.gov
Link: https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-to-release-discuss-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-report/Source snippet
NASA to Release, Discuss Unidentified Anomalous...The report is not a review or assessment of previous unidentifiable observations...
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Source: science.nasa.gov
Link: https://science.nasa.gov/uap/faqs/Source snippet
8 May 2026 — The limited number of high-quality observations of unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAP, currently makes it impossible t...
Published: May 2026
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UAP ImageryThe United States European Command submitted a report of an unidentified anomalous phenomenon to the All-domain Anomaly Resolu...
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Source: aaro.mil
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Source snippet
AARO HomeUnidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) means (A) airborne objects that are not immediately identifiable; (B) transmedium objects...
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Source: aaro.mil
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/Information%20Papers/AARO_Declassification_Info_Paper_2025.pdfSource snippet
AARO and the Declassification ProcessThis includes commonplace images of birds, balloons, commercial drones, and natural phenomena, which...
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Most UFOs are 'Chinese surveillance' drones and 'airborne...4 Nov 2022 — A classified UAP report delivered to Congress this week by the...
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Title: pentagon ufo chief tells senate very anomalous objects need careful study video
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Pentagon UFO chief tells Senate 'very anomalous objects'...19 Nov 2024 — "Many reports resolve to commonplace objects like birds, balloo...
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UFOs worth investigating without 'real evidence,' Scott...2 Jun 2023 — Four-time astronaut Scott Kelly spoke with Space.com about why ai...
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Title: uap reports soar dod office receives 757 new sightings
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Link: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/NASA_Unidentified_Anomalous_Phenomena%3A_Independent_Study_Team_Report/ForewordSource snippet
Study Team Report/Foreword14 Oct 2023 — Despite numerous accounts and visuals, the absence of consistent, detailed, and curated observati...
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Link: https://www.wesh.com/article/bill-nelson-blue-origin-explosion-cape-canaveral/71447655 -
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Title: Spacewoman” Documentary Spotlights NASA Trailblazer Eileen Collins
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Additional References
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Source: uapsightings.org
Link: https://uapsightings.org/common-uap-misidentifications/Source snippet
Common UAP MisidentificationsWith the increasing use of drones for military, commercial, and recreational purposes, drone flights can als...
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Source: reddit.com
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/16ijwyl/nasa_shares_unidentified_anomalous_phenomena/Source snippet
NASA Shares Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena...The report contains the external study team's findings and recommendations which aim to i...
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Source: reddit.com
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/16ij6ui/nasa_shares_unidentified_anomalous_phenomena/ -
Source: primitiveproton.com
Link: https://primitiveproton.com/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-uap/ -
Source: skyandtelescope.org
Title: nasa finds no evidence ufos are extraterrestrial promises further study
Link: https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/nasa-finds-no-evidence-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-promises-further-study/Source snippet
NASA Finds No Evidence UFOs Are Extraterrestrial...15 Sept 2023 — An independent study shows how NASA can help understand unidentified a...
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Source: defensescoop.com
Title: uap aaro chief unveils pentagon annual caseload analysis new efforts
Link: https://defensescoop.com/2024/11/14/uap-aaro-chief-unveils-pentagon-annual-caseload-analysis-new-efforts/Source snippet
'The truly anomalous': New AARO chief unveils Pentagon's...14 Nov 2024 — “AARO has successfully resolved hundreds of cases in its holdin...
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Source: reuters.com
Title: nasa panel calls agency play larger role studying ufos 2023 09 14
Link: https://www.reuters.com/science/nasa-panel-calls-agency-play-larger-role-studying-ufos-2023-09-14/Source snippet
NASA names chief of UFO research; panel sees no alien...14 Sept 2023 — "Despite numerous accounts and visuals, the absence of consistent...
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Source: media.defense.gov
Title: FY24 CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL REPORT ON UAP 508
Link: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/14/2003583603/-1/-1/0/FY24-CONSOLIDATED-ANNUAL-REPORT-ON-UAP-508.PDFSource snippet
Year 2024 Consolidated Annual Report on...14 Nov 2024 — In many other cases, birds are commonly misidentified as UAP due to sensor artif...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Unidentified_Anomalous_Phenomena_Independent_Study_TeamSource snippet
NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent...The team's report was released on September 14, 2023, and did not find evidence t...
Published: September 14, 2023
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Source: thedebrief.org
Title: nasas unidentified anomalous phenomena report key takeaways
Link: https://thedebrief.org/nasas-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-report-key-takeaways/Source snippet
NASA's Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Report14 Sept 2023 — “At present, analysis of UAP data is hampered by poor sensor calibration, th...
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